A Data-Driven Approach to Detect Passenger Flow Anomaly under Station Closure

Abstract

During daily subway operation, station closure has large impact on subway system organization and has received increasing attention. This article proposes an anomaly detection method based on ensemble algorithms to determine the range of station closure influence on passenger flow. Firstly, Ensemble Algorithm I is developed to identify the stations with passenger flow volume anomaly and origin-destination (OD) pairs with volume anomaly. Secondly, Ensemble Algorithm II is proposed to identify the OD pairs with travel time anomaly. Then, the spatial variation in passenger flow caused by station closure, i.e. shift of passenger flow to neighboring stations and shift of path flow, is analyzed, and the spatial-temporal influence range of station closure is determined. A case study of the Beijing subway system is performed to illustrate the validity of the proposed method.Compared with sub algorithm of ensemble learning and KNN algorithm, Ensemble Algorithm I and II are more robust and have less misjudgment.