Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech?

Abstract

Key message: Economic consequences of altered survival probabilities under climate change should be considered for regeneration planning in Southeast Germany. Findings suggest that species compositions of mixed stands obtained from continuous optimization may buffer but not completely mitigate economic consequences. Mixed stands of Norway spruce (Picea abiesL. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvaticaL.) (considering biophysical interactions between tree species) were found to be more robust, against both perturbations in survival probabilities and economic input variables, compared to block mixtures (excluding biophysical interactions). Context: Climate change is expected to increase natural hazards in European forests. Uncertainty in expected tree mortality and resulting potential economic consequences complicate regeneration decisions. Aims: This study aims to analyze the economic consequences of altered survival probabilities for mixing Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climate change scenarios. We investigate whether management strategies such as species selection and type of mixture (mixed stands vs. block mixture) could mitigate adverse financial effects of climate change. Methods: The bio-economic modelling approach combines a parametric survival model with modern portfolio theory. We estimate the economically optimal species mix under climate change, accounting for the biophysical and economic effects of tree mixtures. The approach is demonstrated using an example from Southeast Germany. Results: The optimal tree species mixtures under simulated climate change effects could buffer but not completely mitigate undesirable economic consequences. Even under optimally mixed forest stands, the risk-adjusted economic value decreased by 28%. Mixed stands economically outperform block mixtures for all climate scenarios. Conclusion: Our results underline the importance of mixed stands to mitigate the economic consequences of climate change. Mechanistic bio-economic models help to understand consequences of uncertain input variables and to design purposeful adaptation strategies.