Temperate Forests and Climate Change in Mexico: from Modelling to Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

At present there is no doubt that climate change is affecting thestructure, function and the geographic distribution of temperateecosystems at regional and global scales; however in Mexico informationabout impacts of climate change on temperate forest ecosystems arescarce. The present chapter presents two studies of the effect ofclimate change on distribution of species of pines and oaks, and thechange in functional groups composition of temperate forests ecosystemsin Mexico; and, finally we resume a experience on identifying adaptationmeasures in a local forestry sector to climate change with threeparticipatory workshops with key actors in forestry at state level. Werealized a projection for the year 2050 that included two scenarios, asevere and a conservative one of how climate change would impact spatialdistribution to 17 species of oaks and 17 species of pines at nationallevel. Results of this study showed that the effect of alterations intemperature and precipitation modeled under both climate-changescenarios will reduce the current ranges of geographic distribution ofalmost all species of oaks and pines. Responses of these species to thedifferent scenarios of climate change are predicted to bespecies-specific and related to each species affinity. The most affectedspecies under the severe and conservative climate change scenarios willbe P. rudis, P. chihuahuana, P. culminicola, P. oocarpa, Q. acutifolia,Q. crispipilis, and Q. peduncularis. On the other hand we show ananalysis of the possible responses of functional groups was based on theconstruction of an ensemble of eight general circulation models withfour scenarios of global emissions, and a Japanese model of regionalhigh resolution (20 x 20 km) for Oaxaca state at South of Mexico. Theensemble of climate change scenarios suggested that by 2050 thetemperature of the region will increase between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees C,and rainfall will vary between +5 and -10% on current annual totalprecipitation. The sensibility analysis pointed that for the climatechange scenario in 2050 genera as Abies and Pinus restricted theirdistribution area, in contrast, gender or drought-tolerant shrubs arelikely to increase their geographic distribution. In another regionalstudy in Tlaxcala (central Mexico) climate change scenarios projected acondition of drier and warmer (lower soil moisture) climate during thespring, thus the risk of forest fires would increase. Besides, losses ofclimate change of cover forest are another hazard in the state likeillegal logging and land use change. It is estimated that by 2080 therewill be only about 40% of the actual forest area in Tlaxcala by illegallogging and harvesting practices. Therefore, climate change willaccelerate the forests loss in the state and in two or three decadeswill be very little remaining to preserve. As a result of a series ofstakeholders in Tlaxcala we identified adaptation strategies that wegrouped under three headings: reforestation, forest conservation andproduction.