A methodology for designing electrification programs for remote areas

Abstract

One of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is the supply of sustainable energy even where no electrical grid is available. The photovoltaic rural electrification programs are the most common systems implemented in remote areas, especially in developing countries. These programs include the systems installation and their maintenance for a given period. Installation costs and even spare parts costs over time are usually well estimated. However, design and cost estimation of the maintenance systems is a difficult task, whose wrong management has often resulted in the failure of these electrification programs. In this work, a methodology for designing maintenance systems and estimating costs is presented. The methodology includes a mixed integer linear programming model and a rule based expert system. The mathematical programming model allows obtaining the optimal size and accurate cost estimation of a maintenance system, based on precise information about the installed systems. This model is calibrated and validated with real running programs and will be used to get an enlarged data set of simulated cases if needed. The rule based expert system is obtained from the data set applying classification and regression methods with general information about the region and program to be run. It can be used for designing programs or for companies making decisions about being involved in a program to be developed. The methodology has been applied to real Morocco programs.