Wind power forecasting error-based dispatch method for wind farm cluster

Abstract

With the technical development of wind power forecasting, making wind power generation schedule in power systems become an inevitable tendency. This paper proposes a new dispatch method for wind farm (WF) cluster by considering wind power forecasting errors. A probability distribution model of wind power forecasting errors and a mathematic expectation of the power shortage caused by forecasting errors are established. Then, the total mathematic expectation of power shortage from all WFs is minimized. Case study with respect to power dispatch in a WF cluster is conducted using forecasting and actual wind power data within 30 days from sites located at Gansu Province. Compared with the variable proportion method, the power shortage of the WF cluster caused by wind power forecasting errors is reduced. Along with the increment of wind power integrated into power systems, the method positively influences future wind power operation.