Clinical prediction of thrombectomy eligibility: A systematic review and 4-item decision tree

Abstract

Background: A clinical large anterior vessel occlusion (LAVO)-prediction scale could reduce treatment delays by allocating intra-arterial thrombectomy (IAT)-eligible patients directly to a comprehensive stroke center. Aim: To subtract, validate and compare existing LAVO-prediction scales, and develop a straightforward decision support tool to assess IAT-eligibility. Methods: We performed a systematic literature search to identify LAVO-prediction scales. Performance was compared in a prospective, multicenter validation cohort of the Dutch acute Stroke study (DUST) by calculating area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC). With group lasso regression analysis, we constructed a prediction model, incorporating patient characteristics next to National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) items. Finally, we developed a decision tree algorithm based on dichotomized NIHSS items. Results: We identified seven LAVO-prediction scales. From DUST, 1316 patients (35.8% LAVO-rate) from 14 centers were available for validation. FAST-ED and RACE had the highest AUROC (both >0.81, p < 0.01 for comparison with other scales). Group lasso analysis revealed a LAVO-prediction model containing seven NIHSS items (AUROC 0.84). With the GACE (Gaze, facial Asymmetry, level of Consciousness, Extinction/inattention) decision tree, LAVO is predicted (AUROC 0.76) for 61% of patients with assessment of only two dichotomized NIHSS items, and for all patients with four items. Conclusion: External validation of seven LAVO-prediction scales showed AUROCs between 0.75 and 0.83. Most scales, however, appear too complex for Emergency Medical Services use with prehospital validation generally lacking. GACE is the first LAVO-prediction scale using a simple decision tree as such increasing feasibility, while maintaining high accuracy. Prehospital prospective validation is planned.