Quantifying Poverty Temporal Changes in Association with Rural Transition in Guangxi, China

Abstract

Poverty is a social problem in developing countries, especially for the rural places experiencing rapid transition. This study characterizes the temporal changes of rural poverty under rural transition during 1991-2010 in Guangxi. In particular, poverty is measured by the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke method, and rural transition is described from three aspects including rural industrialization, regional urbanization, and agriculture commercialization. Relationships are quantified by multivariate linear regression. Results reveal that industry income proportion (IIP) and secondary industry proportion (SIP) are positive contributors to the poverty incidence, while urban-rural income gap (URIG) is a negative contributor to the poverty incidence. Industrial total output of township and village enterprises (ITOE), IIP, and grain commercialization rate (GCR) present positive correlation with the poverty depth. The URIG has a negative correlation with the poverty depth. Tertiary industry proportion (TIP) and expenditure on fixed productive assets per capita (EFPA) are positively correlated with the poverty severity, while URIG and power of agricultural machinery (PAM) associate with poverty severity negatively. Redundancy analysis shows that individual influence of rural industrialization is higher than that of regional urbanization and agriculture commercialization. The joint influences of rural industrialization, regional urbanization, and agriculture commercialization are the strongest.