The safety margin of small-scale tree cover loss in global fragmented forests

Abstract

Climatic and anthropogenic disturbances have led to intense small-scale tree cover loss in global forests. However, it remains unclear when forest attributes at a large scale (e.g., 0.05° resolution) will decline in response to such sub-grid (e.g., 30-m) tree cover losses within forest ecosystems. Utilizing global maps of forest attribute proxies, we discover that vegetation greenness, canopy structure, composition, and photosynthesis function can all increase under limited tree cover loss, indicating a widely existing safety margin in global forests that is primarily buffered by a positive edge effect of landscape fragmentation within forest ecosystems. The safety margin varies across biomes (tropical: 7.7%; temperate: 3.7%; boreal: 1.0%) and is often positively correlated with ecosystem resistance. In addition, about 35.7% of the remaining global forests have exceeded the safety margin. Our finding contrasts with the conventional perception that sub-grid tree cover losses are inevitably associated with declines in forest attributes and functions. It provides quantitative information for mitigating forest degradation and has strong implications for sustainable forest management practices.