Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations

Abstract

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short-term, mid-term and long-term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas.