An ensemble high-resolution projection of changes in the future habitat of American lobster and sea scallop in the Northeast US continental shelf

Abstract

Aim: To address the uncertainty associated with climate-driven biogeographical changes in commercial fisheries species through an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. Location: Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS-LME). Methods: We combined an ensemble SDM platform (BIOMOD 2) and a high-resolution global climate model (NOAA GFDL CM2.6) to quantify spatiotemporal changes in habitat of two commercially important species in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS-LME); American lobster (Homarus americanus); and sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus). An ensemble SDM was calibrated using multi-decadal fisheries-independent surveys (1984–2016). Statistically weighted species-specific ensemble SDM outputs were combined with 80 years of projected bottom temperature and salinity changes in response to a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (an annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2). Results: Statistically significant changes (p