The two-child limit and fertility decision making: When policy narratives and lived experiences collide

Abstract

The UK's two-child limit restricts the child element in Universal Credit and Tax Credits to two children in a household. Given that the policy aims to influence the fertility decision making of parents in (or at risk of) poverty, it is important to explore the impact it has here. This article contrasts the policy rationale for the two-child limit with everyday realities of fertility decision making. We share new empirical findings from qualitative longitudinal research with parents directly affected by the two-child limit, contrasting these with the assumptions found in government speeches and statements on the policy. This exploration reveals a series of mismatches, which help explain the relative absence of fertility effects, which has been uncovered in previous quantitative analysis. We show how a government narrative of “choice” over fertility decisions is contradicted by situated realities, where choice is often absent or unresponsive to changes in financial incentives. We also find low levels of awareness of the two-child limit, militating against it affecting fertility decision making. Our findings demonstrate the importance of better and more sustained engagement with qualitative evidence in the design and review of policies, essential if we are to prevent harms like those witnessed as a result of the two-child limit.