THE PREDICTION MODEL FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES ADOPTION RATE IN MALAYSIA

Abstract

This comprehensive study presents an integrated analysis of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Malaysia, combining behavioural research, advanced predictive modelling, and policy assessment to evaluate the country's readiness for sustainable transportation transition. The research employed a sequential mixed-methods approach, integrating a validated Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) survey with hybrid forecasting models to assess current adoption trends and project future scenarios through 2030. A two-phase TPB survey was conducted with a pilot test (n=50) and main survey (n=500), achieving excellent reliability across all constructs (Cronbach's α = 0.802-0.850). Advanced modelling framework combining SARIMAX, LSTM, and weighted ensemble approaches achieved excellent predictive accuracy at the national level (R² = 0.822). Key findings reveal that while Malaysia's EV market demonstrated 45.6% growth in Q1 2025, reaching 6,827 units, no region is projected to meet the 20% 2030 adoption target under current trajectories. Current infrastructure deployment stands at 4,161 charging stations, representing 41.6% progress toward 2025 targets. Behavioral analysis indicates perceived behavioral control as the primary barrier despite positive consumer attitudes. Strategic recommendations include accelerating rural charging infrastructure, extending fiscal incentives beyond 2025, and implementing targeted behavioural interventions.