Forecasting electric power generation of photovoltaic power system for energy network

Abstract

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.