Applying a Digital Twin and wastewater analysis for robust validation of COVID-19 pandemic forecasts: insights from Catalonia

Abstract

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 spread is challenging due to asymptomatic infections, numerous variants, and population behavior changes from non-pharmaceutical interventions. We developed a Digital Twin model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Catalonia. Continuous validation ensures our model’s accuracy. Our system uses Catalonia Health Service data to quantify cases, hospitalizations, and healthcare impact. These data may be under-reported due to screening policy changes. To improve our model’s reliability, we incorporate data from the Catalan Surveillance Network of SARS-CoV-2 in Sewage (SARSAIGUA). This paper shows how we use sewage data in the Digital Twin validation process to identify discrepancies between model predictions and real-time data. This continuous validation approach enables us to generate long-term forecasts, gain insights into SARS-CoV-2 spread, reassess assumptions, and enhance our understanding of the pandemic’s behavior in Catalonia.