Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections

Abstract

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most important driver of climate variability. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of how climate change may affect future eruptions. Here, we use an ensemble of simulations by 1-D and 3-D volcanic plume models spanning a large range of eruption source and atmospheric conditions to assess changes in the dynamics of future eruptive columns. Our results shed new light on differences between the predictions of 1-D and 3-D plume models. Furthermore, both models suggest that as a result of ongoing climate change, for tropical eruptions, (i) higher eruption intensities will be required for plumes to reach the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and (ii) the height of plumes currently reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere or above will increase. We discuss the implications of these results for the climatic impacts of future eruptions. Our simulations can directly inform climate model experiments on climate-volcano feedback.