Regional Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Indonesia: A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Regional vulnerability to food insecurity is shaped by intertwined socioeconomic and climatic factors. In Indonesia, vulnerability is evident in the rise in undernourishment from 8.23% in 2017 to 10.21% in 2022. This study proposes a new regional vulnerability index for food insecurity across Indonesia and shows that social and economic conditions are the main drivers. Using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the study examines how combinations of poverty, unemployment, GRDP per capita, government expenditure per capita, economic growth, and rainfall jointly produce vulnerability. fsQCA groups regions with similar profiles and identifies multiple causal pathways instead of a single cause. Analysis of 34 provinces reveals nine distinct pathways, typically involving high poverty and unemployment, low income and government spending, slow economic growth, and low rainfall. The results highlight the need to account for each region’s specific combination of conditions and to use methods that capture causal complexity in food insecurity.