MODELING THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OF ENTITIES IN THE TOURIST SERVICES MARKET

Abstract

In this article, the authors hypothesize that the performance of tourism entities depends on the number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of tourism entities in the regions of Ukraine. Econometric methods of correlation-regression analysis were used to solve the research problems, determining the quantitative patterns and relationships between «number of tourism entities», «number of tourist packages sold», «cost of tourist packages sold», «number of tourist nights included in tourist packages», «number of tourists served» and «number of deaths from COVID-19». Statistics for 24 regions of Ukraine were used for modeling, with the division of tourism entities into two groups: legal entities and natural entities-entrepreneurs. Paired linear regression equations are constructed. The following indicators were determined to check the quality of the constructed econometric models: correlation coefficient, random error value, elasticity coefficient, and determination coefficient. The Student’s t-test was calculated to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficient, and Fisher’s F-test was calculated to test the value of the regression model. There is a decrease in all analyzed financial and economic indicators of tourism entities in all regions of Ukraine in 2020. Important and high negative relationship between all the analyzed financial and economic indicators of the work of tourism entities and the number of deaths from COVID-19 was found. The results of the empirical assessment of the impact and modeling of the epidemic’s effects on the tourism industry will help public authorities and tourism entities develop strategic actions to build capacity and ensure the financial and economic sustainability of the tourist services market in response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.