Mathematical models as practical tool for road fatalities forecasts on road network in regions

Abstract

The analysis of national data on the number of deaths showed that in Poland from 2010 to 2016 it was possible to reduce the number of fatalities by about 22%. The tendency of changes in the number of fatalities, however, is not homogeneous. When data of individual voivodships is analyzed, the situation is different. The largest reduction in fatalities in the analyzed period of time concerned voivodship Swietokrzyskie, where there was more than 45% drop in the number of fatalities. The following voivodships: Lódzkie, Lubelskie and Podkarpackie recorded a decrease in over 30% of fatalities. Unfortunately, at the end of the classification there were four voivodships with a fall below 8%, and what is disturbing voivodship Lubuskie recorded a nearly 5% increase in the number of fatalities. The current traffic safety management at the level of voivodships is often the implementation of central recommendations, which, as results from the analysis of statistical data, are not equally effective in every province. Therefore, models for forecasting changes in road safety are required. Taking into account local characteristics and implemented actions can be used to manage security more effectively at the regional level. This paper presents examples of the use of mathematical models to predict the number of fatalities in individual voivodships depending on the adopted action scenarios. Regression models were developed, taking into account demographic, infrastructural, economic and automotive factors. It turned out that in individual voivodships, various factors affect the level of road safety on roads differently. Therefore, an individual approach to each voivodship is important in order to reliably forecast the level of security.