Modelling the Migratory Population Dynamics of the Serengeti Ecosystem

Abstract

Many ecological studies have tried to explain the animal migrations, but none has embarked on modeling the Great Migration and its impact on the migratory animals’ population dynamics, in combination with food and the impact of predation. In this paper, we present a mathematical model of the four dynamic Ordinary Differential Equations of Grass, Herbivores, Lions and Crocodiles. Using secondary data covering ten years 1996-2006 we estimated the parameters in the model. The grass forage grew periodically, the herbivores population grew, the predation rate of lions grew and so did its population. But the crocodiles’ population grew less. The study has shown that there was no extinction and migration continued. Herbivores population grew provided that there was enough food.