Hydrogeological Assessment and Steady-State Groundwater Flow Modeling for Groundwater Management in the Golina River Sub-Basin, Northern Ethiopia, Using MODFLOW 6

Abstract

Unsustainable groundwater extraction for domestic and agricultural purposes, particularly crop irrigation, is leading to dramatic reductions in the quantity and quality of groundwater in many developing countries, including Ethiopia. Assessing and predicting groundwater responses to hydraulic stress caused by overexploitation related to anthropogenic activities and climate change are crucial for informing water management decisions. The aim of this study is to develop a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow model for the Golina River Sub-Basin to understand the relationship between groundwater recharge and groundwater pumping and their impacts under steady-state conditions from the perspective of groundwater management. The model was created using MODFLOW 6 and discretized into 345 rows and 444 columns with a grid resolution of 100 m by 100 m. The subsurface was modeled as two layers: a clastic alluvial layer overlying a weathered and fractured bedrock. The surface-water divide of the Golina River Sub-Basin was treated as a no-flow boundary. The initial values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.001 m/day for rhyolite to 27.26 m/day for alluvial deposits. The aquifer recharge rates from the WetSpass model ranged from 1.08 × 10−3 to 2.25 × 10−4 m/day, and the discharge rates from the springs, hand-dug wells, and boreholes were 2.79 × 104 m3/day, known flux boundaries. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the model is very sensitive to hydraulic conductivity, moderately sensitive to aquifer recharge, and less sensitive to groundwater pumping. Calibration was performed to match observed and simulated hydraulic heads of selected wells and achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.998. The calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 1.2 × 10−4 m/day for rhyolite to 20 m/day for gravel-dominated alluvial deposits. The groundwater flow direction is toward the southeast, and the water balance indicates a negligible difference between the total recharge (207,775.8297 m3/day, which is the water entering the aquifer system) and the total pumped volume (207,775.9373 m3/day, which is the water leaving the aquifer system). The scenario analysis showed that an increase in the pumping rate of 25%, 50%, and 75% would result in a decrease in the hydraulic head by 4.64 m, 10.18 m, and 17.38 m, respectively. A decrease in recharge of 25%, 50%, and 75% would instead result in hydraulic-head declines of 6 m, 15.29 m, and 46.97 m, respectively. Consequently, the findings of this study suggest that decision-makers should prioritize enhancing integrated groundwater management strategies to improve recharge rates within the aquifer system of the study area.