Wake Losses, Productivity, and Cost Analysis of a Polish Offshore Wind Farm in the Baltic Sea

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the long-term energy performance and economic viability of offshore wind farms planned for locations within the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea. It focuses on the impact of wind farm layout, aerodynamic wake effects, and rotor blade surface degradation. Using the Jensen wake model, modified Weibull wind speed distributions are computed for various turbine spacing configurations (5D, 8D, and 10D) and wake decay constants (Formula presented.). The results reveal a trade-off between turbine density and individual turbine efficiency: tighter spacing increases the total annual energy production (AEP) but also intensifies wake-induced losses. The study shows that cumulative losses due to wake effects can range from 16.5% to 38%, depending on the scenario considered. This corresponds to capacity factors ranging from 33.4% to 45.2%. Finally, lifetime productivity scenarios over 20 and 25 years are analyzed, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is calculated to assess the economic implications of design choices. The analysis reveals that, depending on the values of the considered parameters, the LCOE can range from USD 116.3 to 175.7 per MWh produced. The study highlights the importance of early stage optimization in maximizing both the energy yield and cost-efficiency in offshore wind farm developments.