Modeling the Impact of a Model: The (Non)Relationship between China's Economic Rise and African Democracy

Abstract

Many scholars have regarded China's emergence as an economic force as a threat to democracy in Africa, presenting China as the exporter of an authoritarian model through its rising economic influence. This article investigates how well founded the contended Chinese economic threat to Africa is by both analyzing the data at a very fundamental level and applying time-series, cross-sectional analysis to economic and political data. In particular, the relationship between Chinese economic interactions with African states and democracy is explored. The analysis considers different aspects of an economic interaction with China measured both as share of GDP and of country totals. I do not find a relationship between Chinese economic interaction with African states and democracy in these states. The article thus contributes much important groundwork concerning the existence of patterns in Chinese economic relations and democracy, as well as some specific links between these economic relations and political change. Related Articles (in this Special Issue): Åberg, John H. S., and Derick Becker. 2020. “China as Exemplar: Justin Lin, New Structural Economics, and the Unorthodox Orthodoxy of the China Model.” Politics & Policy 48 (5). Duggan, Niall. 2020. “China—The Champion of the Developing World: A Study of China's new Development Model and its Role in Changing Global Economic Governance.” Politics & Policy 48 (5). Ziso, Edson. 2020. “The Political Economy of the Chinese Model in Ethiopia.” Politics & Policy 48 (5).