Stochastic Analysis of the Social, Environmental and Financial Cost of Concrete Mixtures Containing Recycled Materials and Industrial Byproducts for Airport Pavement Construction Using the Triple Bottom Line Approach

Abstract

With the growing trend of incorporating waste and industrial by-products in infrastructure, airport pavements built with sustainable materials are of increasing interest. This research developed six theoretical concrete mixtures for airport pavement and evaluated their financial, social and environmental cost within a stochastic triple bottom line framework. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture uncertainty in key parameters, particularly material transport distances, embodied carbon, and cost variability, allowing a probabilistic comparison of conventional and sustainable mixtures. The results showed that mixtures incorporating supplementary cementitious materials, recycled concrete aggregate and geopolymer cement consistently outperformed the ordinary Portland cement benchmark across all triple bottom line dimensions. Geopolymer concrete offered the greatest overall benefit, while the mixture containing blast furnace slag aggregate demonstrated how long haulage distances can significantly erode sustainability gains, highlighting the importance of locally available materials to sustainability. Overall, the findings provide quantitative evidence that substantial triple bottom line cost reductions are achievable within current airport pavement specifications, and even greater benefits are possible if specifications are expanded to include emerging low-carbon technologies such as geopolymer cement. These outcomes reinforce the need for performance-based specifications that permit the use of recycled materials and industrial by-products in pursuit of sustainable airport pavement practice.