Simulating Hype Cycle Curves with Mathematical Functions : Some Examples of High-Tech Trends in Japan

Abstract

In this study, a method to simulate Gartner's hype cycle [1] is proposed. A search of the academic literature on this topic provides no clear guidance on how to draw hype cycle curves with mathematical functions. This article explores a new process for simulating the curve as a combination of bell-shaped curves and S-shaped curves, and applies this process to some high-tech innovations in Japan. Trends in technologies such as customer relationship management (CRM), supply chain management (SCM), and cloud computing are analyzed by using a corpus of 4,772 newspaper articles. For these examples, Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic functions. For the combined curve, polynomial functions of degree 9 provide the best fit, with adjusted R-square values of more than 0.97.