An XGBoost-based casualty prediction method for terrorist attacks

Abstract

Terrorist attacks have been becoming one of the severe threats to national public security and world peace. Ascertaining whether the behaviors of terrorist attacks will threaten the lives of innocent people is vital in dealing with terrorist attacks, which has a profound impact on the resource optimization configuration. For this purpose, we propose an XGBoost-based casualty prediction algorithm, namely RP-GA-XGBoost, to predict whether terrorist attacks will cause the casualties of innocent civilians. In the proposed RP-GA-XGBoost algorithm, a novel method that incorporates random forest (RF) and principal component analysis (PCA) is devised for selecting features, and a genetic algorithm is used to tune the hyperparameters of XGBoost. The proposed method is evaluated on the public dataset (Global Terrorism Database, GTD) and the terrorist attack dataset in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves area under curve (AUC) of 87.00%, and accuracy of 86.33% for the public dataset, and sensitivity of 94.00%, AUC of 94.90% for the terrorist attack dataset in China, which proves the superiority and higher generalization ability of the proposed algorithm. Our study, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to apply machine learning in the management of terrorist attacks, which can provide early warning and decision support information for terrorist attack management.