Assessment of the assessment—All about complexes

Abstract

Predicting model quality is a fundamental component of any modeling procedure, and blind assessment of these methods constitutes a crucial aspect of the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment. Historically, the main focus was on assessing methods that predict global and per-residue accuracies in tertiary structure models. This focus shifted with the community's increased efforts in modeling complexes and assemblies. We asked the community to process the models from the CASP15 assembly category and provide estimates of the accuracy of the predicted quaternary structure, both globally and at the local interface level. Besides identifying remarkable accuracy of modeling groups in assessing their own predictions, we set up a benchmarking pipeline to highlight different aspects of quaternary structure models and introduced a simple consensus EMA method as baseline. While participating methods showed commendable performance, the baseline was difficult to surpass. It is important to point out that prediction performance varies for the individual CASP targets, highlighting potential areas of improvement and challenges ahead.