Change in grain production in China and its impacts on spatial supply and demand distributions in recent two decades

Abstract

China is feeding roughly 20% of the world's population with less than 9% of the world's cultivated land. The food security at national and regional scales has been a major concern. In this study, we took the province- level area as the research unit and utilized GIS spatial analysis and statistical tools to examine the overall characteristics of grain production changes, the evolution characteristics of regional patterns and the impact of these changes on regional grain supply and demand pattern in China during 1999-2018. The results showed that the total national grain output significantly increased with an annual rate of 1.1 million tons. The total grain output of Northern China showed a significant growth trend, while that of Southern China remained stable. The increment of maize yield played a leading role in these changes. The spatio- temporal yield variations of five major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, beans and tubers) were quite different in the past 20 years at provincial-level scale. The change of grain yield had great influence on regional grain supply and demand pattern. Particularly, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces located in the southeast coastal region had changed from supply- oriented provinces of major grains with rice and wheat into demand- oriented provinces. However, the per capita share of grain was 368.0 kg/person in Y 1999-2003 period (the five-year average during 1999-2003) and 461.5 kg/person in Y 2014-2018 period (the five-year average during 2014-2018) at national-level scale, respectively; and the per capita share of the two major grains was 220.3 kg/person and 247.6 kg/person in Y 1999- 2003 and Y 2014-2018 periods, respectively. The change of sown area was the direct reason for the change of grain crop yield at national and regional scales. Nevertheless, the fundamental reason was more attributed to the change of attribution, function and quality, which is driven by land use value. Our study classified the reasons for the decrement of cultivated land into "non- agriculture" "non-grain" "wastage" and "ecology" types. Considering the formation causes of each type, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable use of regional cultivated land were put forward in order to provide reference for the adjustment of regional grain planting pattern and the transformation of demand- oriented provinces of two major types of grain to self-sufficient provinces.