Epidemiological Perspectives on Type 1 Diabetes in Childhood and Adolescence in Germany

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987–2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%). RESULTS The current incidence rate (2000–2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6–20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 × {X–1986})2; r2 = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 33.3–42.9). CONCLUSIONS The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age. We present the statistics over 20 years pertaining to the frequency of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents in the third largest state of Germany, which we derived from the Baden-Württemberg incidence register. We developed a prediction model in order to predict the frequency of diabetes for the total group (0–14 years of age) for the next 20 years. These data are essential for health care planning. Additionally, they provide further insight into the epidemiology of the disease in our country over a 40-year period