Intercomparison of empirical formulations of maximum wind radius in parametric tropical storm modeling over zhoushan archipelago

Abstract

The Holland (2010) parametric wind model has been extensively utilized in tropical cyclone and storm surge-related coastal hazard mitigation and management studies. The only remain-ing input parameter, the radius of maximum wind speed (Rm ), is usually generated by previously proposed empirical relations which are, however, sensitivity to study areas in producing better performed numerical results. In order to acquire optimal Rm formulations over the region of Zhoushan Archipelago, East China Sea, 16 empirical relations were compiled into the Holland (2010) model to produce time series of the pressure, wind speed, and wind direction in comparison to observational records taken at three stations during the tropical cyclone events of Ampil and Rumbai. Their re-spective agreements were evaluated by error metrices including the root mean square error, correlation coefficient, mean bias error, and scatter index—whilst the overall performances of the 16 formulations were ranked according to a proposed comprehensive error. In the following order, the Rm formulations of Lu (2012), Zhou (2005), Kato (2018), and Jiang (2008) ranked the best for both events in terms of their minimum comprehensive errors; however, recommendations on the application of specific empirical formulations for the region of Zhoushan Archipelago are also provided herein from the perspective of conservation and accuracy.