Drivers of migration flows in the European Union: Earnings or unemployment?

Abstract

In this article, we analyse the drivers of international migration in the European Union (EU) using data from 23 EU countries in Bayesian model averaging and quantile regression. Our findings reveal that the association between differences in earnings and migration is twice as strong as that of unemployment and a robust feature in the data. Nevertheless, we find that economic factors play a secondary role, with cultural proximity and the “friends and relatives” effect taking precedence. Our results indicate a limited role for labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism within the EU.