Does price of oil and inflation have an impact on the GDP of Africa's largest net oil importers? Evidence from a non-linear heterogeneous panel ARDL

Abstract

The article explores the non-linear relationship between oil prices, inflation, and GDP in eight African countries that import oil from other nations. The study uses various econometric techniques, including symmetric and asymmetric dynamic panel ARDL models, mean group, and pooled mean group approaches, to examine quarterly data from 1983 Q2 to 2020 Q4. The analysis looks at both short-term and long-term variations to measure the positive and negative effects of oil prices and inflation on GDP. The findings reveal that the variables are related, but there are significant non-linearities in the long run. While both rising oil prices and inflation have a positive impact on GDP in most instances, lower oil prices and inflation might have a neutral or negative impact.