A novel risk classification model integrating CEA, ctDNA, and pTN stage for stage 3 colon cancer: a post hoc analysis of the IDEA-France trial

Abstract

Background. We assessed the added value of incorporating carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) to circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and pathological TN (pTN) stage for risk classification in stage 3 colon cancer (CC). Patients and Methods. We retrospectively analyzed postoperative CEA values in patients with CC from the IDEA-France phase 3 trial. The relation between disease-free survival (DFS) and CEA was modeled through restricted cubic splines. Prognostic value of CEA, ctDNA, and pTN was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was used to identify prognostic and predictive factors for DFS. Results. Among 696 patients (35%), CEA values were retrievable, and for 405 (20%) both CEA and ctDNA were available. An optimized CEA threshold of 2 ng/mL was identified, the 3-year DFS was 66.4% for patients above the threshold and 80.9% for those below (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.33-2.28, P < .001). Conclusions. Postoperative CEA value is a prognostic factor for DFS in stage 3 CC, independently of ctDNA and pTN. It advocates for systematic reporting in future adjuvant trials. Integrating both biomarkers with pTN could refine risk classification in stage 3 CC.