Welfare 2.0: future scenarios of social protection systems in the digital age

Abstract

Europe faces today unprecedented challenges including increased life expectancy, changes in family structures, new forms of consumption and production, sedentary lives, with a growth in chronic diseases. These trends, coupled with an increasingly interconnected economic space disrupted by the spread of digital technologies, raises questions about the role and functioning of the Welfare State. After introducing the need for envisaging the future of welfare, the paper presents the approach followed and the resulting scenarios proposed. Four scenarios are created, resulting from identifying two key uncertainties: low or high levels of sustainability, and low or high levels of engagement. The four scenarios of the future of welfare are then discussed showing different implications for how welfare is understood, financed, organized and the roles of different actors. Our discussion aims at opening up the debate on where the evolutionary paths of welfare systems could lead European societies in light of the impact of the digital transformation, and the required rethinking of their functioning and role. This would provide support in identifying innovative trajectories outlining possible further research directions, and implications for European policies with an impact at national, regional and local level.