Can planned control measures for private passenger vehicles achieve China's carbon peak goal and mitigate the environmental impact?

Abstract

There is a lack of consensus as to whether planned control measures for vehicular emissions can achieve China's carbon peak goal and mitigate the environmental impact of private passenger vehicles. This paper studies the environmental benefits of China's planned control measures by using a dynamic fleet-based life cycle assessment (LCA) method and “what-if” scenario analysis at a full national scale in a life-cycle systematic perspective. The results showed that burden-shifting may occur for electric vehicle (EV) deployment and demand-side interventions. China cannot achieve carbon peak goal before 2030 with the current planned control measures, unless the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fleet or the power grid is improved significantly. Large-scale deployment of EVs in the short term, with much improved ICEVs and a less clean power grid, is not conducive to peak fleet carbon emissions. Therefore, improving the ICEV fleet should be a priority for policy-making in the short term.