Earthquake Risk Assessment: Present Shortcomings and Future Directions

Abstract

This paper looks at the current practices in regional and portfolio seismic risk assessment, discusses some of their shortcomings and presents proposals for improving the state-of-the-practice in the future. Both scenario-based and probabilistic risk assessment are addressed, and modelling practices in the hazard, fragility/vulnerability and exposure components are presented and critiqued. The subsequent recommendations for improvements to the practice and necessary future research are mainly focused on treatment and propagation of uncertainties. © The Author(s) 2014.