Revisit Prediction by Deep Survival Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce SurvRev, a next-generation revisit prediction model that can be tested directly in business. The SurvRev model offers many advantages. First, SurvRev can use partial observations which were considered as missing data and removed from previous regression frameworks. Using deep survival analysis, we could estimate the next customer arrival from unknown distribution. Second, SurvRev is an event-rate prediction model. It generates the predicted event rate of the next k days rather than directly predicting revisit interval and revisit intention. We demonstrated the superiority of the SurvRev model by comparing it with diverse baselines, such as the feature engineering model and state-of-the-art deep survival models.