Comparison of prognostic prediction models for rectal gastrointestinal stromal tumor

Abstract

Background: Rectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (RGISTs) are biologically characterized tumors that are relatively rare. Thus, few studies have reported a specific prognostic system for this subset of tumors but integrated it into parallel systems, such as small intestine. Our aim is to develop a new predictive staging system nomogram (named FD-ZS system) for RGISTs. Results: Tumor size and mitotic rate were independent risk factors for tumor recurrence in RGISTs according to univariate and multivariate survival analyses. A prognostic predictive nomogram was developed, and a cut-off value of 65 points was calculated by X-tile to discriminate risk based on tumor size and mitotic rate. The C-indices for the FD-ZS, FD-Hou, NIH, and WHO systems were 0.706, 0.693, 0.687, and 0.680, respectively. Conclusion: In the present study, a concise two-tier grading system (FD-ZS) for prognostic prediction of RGISTs that is simpler to several reported systems was developed, and a cut-off value was established to help RGIST patients determine whether to undergo adjuvant imatinib treatment. Methods: A nomogram was employed, and its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve analyses. The nomogram was then compared with three stratification systems used for GISTs (FD-Hou, NIH, and WHO).