Prospective voting and the issues and leaders model: Forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Abstract

This paper presents the Issues and Leaders model for forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election’s popular vote, grounded in the theory of prospective voting. The model focuses on voter perceptions of candidates’ competence in handling key issues and leadership qualities, departing from traditional retrospective models based on incumbent performance and economic fundamentals. Designed with campaign strategy in mind, the model provides actionable insights for messaging and public positioning. Throughout the final 100 days of the campaign, it consistently predicted a close race. Its Election Eve forecast—a near tie with Donald Trump at 50.2% and Kamala Harris at 49.8% of the two-party vote—was more cautious than most polling-based forecasts, many of which showed a Harris lead. Ultimately, Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points, and the model’s average error across the campaign was just 0.65 points. By emphasizing dynamic voter evaluations, the model offers a forward-looking framework for understanding electoral behavior and improving election forecasting.