A decision support system for prediction of microbial spoilage in foods

Abstract

A method is developed to combine qualitative and quantitative information for the prediction of growth of microorganisms in foods. pH, water activity, temperature and oxygen availability of foods are coupled to growth characteristics of microorganisms. For that purpose, a database with characteristics of foods and a database of kinetic parameters of microorganisms are built. The first database has a tree structure, based on physical similarity of food products. This structure makes it possible to estimate information about a food product which is not listed by comparison with similar products at the same level of the tree or the level above. A method is developed to make an estimation of the microbial growth kinetics on the basis of models. This is done by introducing a growth factor, which can be calculated on the basis of readily available data from literature. Finally, qualitative knowledge is added. Since any bit of information can be changed, the system will give better predictions when more and more accurate information is added. © 1993 Society for Industrial Microbiology.