Capitalizing on Cleavages: Transnational Jihadist Conflicts, Local Fault Lines and Cumulative Extremism

Abstract

Trans-national jihadist groups have established themselves across many contexts. However, we have limited knowledge about the larger picture of how such groups tap into various inter-religious, sectarian, or ethnic divisions. To address this research gap, we explore: How do trans-national jihadist groups mobilize on the basis of different forms of identity cleavages? Our empirical analysis focuses on all trans-national jihadist groups who have challenged governments in civil wars. We find that mobilization along ethnic divisions is the most common cleavage, and is increasing most over time. We also find that sectarian mobilization is rare, but associated with significant escalation of violence.