Nuevas barreras comerciales de EU a las importaciones automotrices y posibles efectos en el empleo regional

Abstract

The renegotiation of nafta in the coming months is an inescapable fact and there are fears about the im-position of barriers to imports from Mexico, especially in the automotive industry (ai). The changes would disrupt the operation of an industry that operates with a logic of global competition, in which Mexico is a link to save production costs. The effects in the country would not be negligible since the ai is the most dynamic in the opening period, with significant contributions to exports, gdp and employment, especially in fifteen regions where the decline in ai would have serious implications for jobs. This research analyzes the possible consequences of new us barriers to automotive imports. The analysis with time series on the employ-ment of four sectors shows Granger causality from ai to other activities. With this base, the vec methodology is used and four scenarios are estimated that assume different levels of reduction of the automotive activity. The results indicate heterogeneous effects between the regions, widely affecting those areas more dependent on ai. Furthermore, under each scenario the magnitude of jobs loss in all economic activities is calculated.