Forecasting quantitative risk indicators of investors in projects of biohydrogen production from agricultural raw materials

Abstract

Hydrogen is increasingly considered as an environmentally friendly energy source as it stores a large amount of chemical energy per unit mass (142 MJ·kg−1 ) that can be released without the emission of combustion by-products. The presented research is based on simulation modeling of biohydrogen production projects from agricultural waste. Based on the probability theory and mathematical statistics, the models of the variable market value of biohydrogen and natural gas are substantiated. The results of the research indicate that in 2019, projects regarding the production of biohydrogen from agricultural raw materials were mostly unprofitable for the investors. However, starting in 2030, the forecasted return on investment in biohydrogen production projects from agricultural raw materials indicates that such projects will be profitable for investors, and the number and scale of such projects will significantly increase worldwide.