Detecting spatial clusters of disease infection risk using sparsely sampled social media mobility patterns

Abstract

Standard spatial cluster detection methods used in public health surveillance assign each disease case to a single location (typically, the patient's home address), aggregate locations to small areas, and monitor the number of cases in each area over time. However, such methods cannot detect clusters of disease resulting from visits to non-residential locations, such as a park or a university campus. Thus we develop two new spatial scan methods, the unconditional and conditional spatial logistic models, to search for spatial clusters of increased infection risk. We use mobility data from two sets of individuals, disease cases and healthy individuals, where each individual is represented by a sparse sample of geographical locations (e.g., from geo-tagged social media data). The methods account for the multiple, varying number of spatial locations observed per individual, either by non-parametric estimation of the odds of being a case, or by matching case and control individuals with similar numbers of observed locations. Applying our methods to synthetic and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate robust performance on detecting spatial clusters of infection risk from mobility data, outperforming competing baselines.