Impact of land surface processes on convection over West Africa in convection-permitting ensemble forecasts: A case study using the MOGREPS ensemble

Abstract

Soil moisture (SM) affects weather through its impact on surface flux partitioning, influencing vertical atmospheric profiles and circulations driven by differential surface heating. In West Africa, observational studies point to a dominant negative SM-precipitation feedback, where dry soils help to initiate and maintain convection. In this context, serious concerns exist about the ability of models with parameterised convection to simulate this observed sensitivity of daytime convection to SM. Here, we evaluate the effect of initial SM perturbations in a short-range ensemble forecast over West Africa, comparing the UK Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) with parameterised convection (GLOB-ENS) to its regional convection-permitting counterpart (CP-ENS). Results from both models suggest SM perturbations introduce considerable spread into daytime evaporative fraction (EF) and near-surface temperatures. This spread is still evident on Day 3 of the forecast. Both models also show a tendency to increased afternoon rainfall frequency over negative EF anomalies, reproducing the observed feedback. However, this effect is more pronounced in CP-ENS than GLOB-ENS, which illustrates the potential for process-based forecast improvements at convection-permitting scales. Finally, we identify persistent biases in rainfall caused by land cover mapping issues in the operational GLOB-ENS setup, emphasising the need for careful evaluation of different mapping strategies for land cover.