Prediction model of gonadotropin starting dose and its clinical application in controlled ovarian stimulation

Abstract

Background: Selecting an appropriate and personalized Gn starting dose (GSD) is an essential procedure for determining the quality and quantity of oocytes in the controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) process of the in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment cycle. The current approach for determining the GSD is mainly based on the experience of a clinician, lacking unified and scientific standards. This study aims to establish a prediction model of GSD, based on which good COS outcomes can be achieved with the influencing factors comprehensively evaluated quantitatively. Material and methods: We collected a total of 1555 patients undergoing the first oocytes retrieving cycle and conducted correlation analysis to find the significant factors related to the GSD. Two GSD models are built based on two popular machine learning approaches, and the one with better model performance is selected as the final model. Finally, clinical application and validation were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results: (1) Age, duration of infertility, type of infertility, body mass index (BMI), antral follicle count (AFC), basal follicle stimulating hormone (bFSH), estradiol (E2), luteinizing hormone (LH), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and COS treatment regimen were closely related to the GSD (P < 0.05). (2) The selected model has good modeling performance in terms of both root mean square error (RMSE) (29.87 ~ 34.21) and regression coefficient R (0.947 ~ 0.953). (3) A comprehensive evaluation of influencing factors for GSD is conducted and shows that the top four most significant factors are age, AMH, AFC, and BMI. (4) The proposed GSD can approximate the actual value well in the clinical application, with the mean absolute error of only 11.26 units, and the recommended results can prompt the number of oocytes retrieved (NOR) close to the optimal number. Conclusion: Modeling the GSD value with machine learning approaches is feasible and effective, and the proposed model has good clinical application for determining the GSD in the IVF treatment cycle.