Forecasting symbiosis in tourism enterprise networks: Monte Carlo simulation of risk and return

Abstract

This study re-conceptualises the relationship between symbiosis and risk/return as an influence for economic benefit or harm for micro, small and medium enterprises in tourism. A critique of predictive literature identifies Monte Carlo simulation’s capacity to use non-parametric data and input of multiple, concurrent variables as best suited to forecasting firms’ performance. Statistically significant risk/return variables are established from national monitors. The secondary which is accessed from the New Zealand Business Benchmarking Survey and the Management Resource Centre is used for the simulations. Results show that businesses in different industries were affected by range of factors that resulted in variation in a particular firm’s profit. Hospitality enterprises are most vulnerable, accommodation and retail firms experience greater flux, but the retail component recovers quickly. The research contributes to symbiosis theory, predictive methodology and has implications for the economic recovery of the tourism sector.