Statistical analysis of floods in Bohemia (Czech Republic) since 1825

Abstract

This study focuses on two main rivers of Bohemia (Czech Republic): the Vltava and the Elbe. Flows are determined for the Elbe at Děčín (discharges) and Litoměřice (water stages), and for the Vltava at Prague (discharges). Extreme flows have an important socio-economic impact; hence modelling their occurrence accurately is crucial. We identify the meteorological causes for floods: (a) the winter type due to snowmelt, ice damming, and usually rain, and (b) the summer type due to continuous heavy rains. The amplitude and frequency of floods are analysed using extreme value theory, in a non-stationary context. This allows the determination of the trends of flood features during the instrumental period and their dependence on atmospheric circulation patterns. Copyright © 2006 IAHS Press.