The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance

Abstract

Statistical modeling of infectious disease transmission patterns has been in existence since the mid-1700s, evolving in their utility as the scientific and technological revolutions progressed. Despite the expansion of emerging mathematical and statistical methodologies over the past 250yr, their usage has largely remained restricted to academic settings. This forum article will discuss the evolution of disease modeling techniques, the most common types of models in use today, and recommendations on how key archetypes can be incorporated into future public health practice. With the recent global impetus to predict and forecast novel pathogens, this article raises the question: Why are endemic arboviruses not included in public health modeling efforts, and how can medical entomologists promote their inclusion?