Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims

Abstract

This article examines global trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to 61, marking the second consecutive year in which the UCDP recorded a historically high number of conflicts. The number of wars increased from nine to 11, the highest count since 2016. The UCDP recorded marginal declines in both state-based fatalities and organized violence as a whole. In contrast, one-sided violence saw a sharp increase, driven primarily by escalating attacks by Islamic State in Africa and widespread killings by non-state actors in Haiti. Non-state conflict declined, both in the number of active conflicts and in total fatalities. In total, the UCDP recorded almost 160,000 deaths in organized violence in 2024. The article also addresses challenges in the classification of casualties, highlighting how limitations in data quality and information access contribute to uncertainty around the civilian-to-combatant fatality ratio. These challenges are particularly acute in cases of organized crime violence, in which the distinction between civilians and combatants is often blurred, and in which indiscriminate types of warfare, such as artillery and aerial bombardment, are used in urban settings.