Subseasonal Predictions of Polar Low Activity Using a Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Approach

Abstract

The subseasonal prediction of polar low (PL) activity is explored using a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach. A previously developed PL genesis potential index is paired with ECMWF reforecasts and forecasts to predict regional statistics of PL activity across the sub-Arctic. Regional PL activity is skillfully predicted in all regions at forecast ranges of up to a month. Additionally, the predictability limit of this hybrid framework (estimated using reanalysis data) is found to be highest over the Nordic Seas, Irminger Sea, Labrador Sea, and Bering Sea. We find that climate modes can strongly influence subseasonal prediction skill and are a potential source of predictability. Overall, our results highlight a promising prospect for the subseasonal prediction of PL activity.